You ever watch those fights, where one guy is taking such an atrocious beating and even though you may have been rooting for him, you and everyone realize that he should throw in the towel, that some Rocky like comeback victory just isn’t going to happen and that everyone realizes it except for the poor bastard taking the beating… Ladies and gentleman and fellow bloggers (lol) I submit to you the latest beat down RIM is taking.
We have these pundits that one week will tell us to buy the stock and then after it falls 5-10% a whole slew of them will tell us its just not worth it. For those of you who remember Nortel, and here’s a historical stock chart for you if you don’t, (I heard that former shareholders of Nortel who still trade stocks all suffer from amnesia among various other ailments). So I’m watching RIM and all the signs are pointing to the exact same thing, but those who own the stock, simply won’t believe it is heading towards the same fate. Some want to believe a merger with Apple or Google is in the works, they’ll point to the fact that RIM opened up its enterprise servers to both companies. Some want to believe it will recover, because they have a vast product line and loyal customers. Let’s not kid ourselves here, there is no such thing as loyalty, the closest thing to that is what Apple has.
But, I’ll digress for a bit, the fire sale has put a lot of Playbooks into consumer hands. (It was just Jail Broken but we’ll over look that for now) That will generate a revenue stream, but more likely then not, they won’t recoup the losses they took for discounting it and selling it under cost. I know RIM has a lot of emerging markets but the profit isn’t there like how it is here, (In North America).
I was discussing this with a friend and he said, “…everywhere I go, I see more Blackberries then I do any other phone.” So I started paying attention, a couple of nights ago, I went to the bar with a few buddies, there were five of us on our table, 4 with Blackberry’s and 1 (me) with an iPhone 4s. I looked over at the next table, (since apparently everyone puts their phone on top of the table) and the ratio was quite consistent with more Blackberry’s present then any other phone. I know that many things can attribute to this, and its just a small sample, but I have to ponder (always wanted to use that word), if there are so many Blackberries out there, why is this company doing so horribly. Something occurred to me, the first outside Canada, those ratio’s just don’t exist and second, this thing has become the Kryptonite of the ‘Smart Phone era.’
It’s hard to recognize a new Blackberry from an old one, (same can be said of many phones, I know) and of course there will always be people who will buy the latest and greatest. But when I took a look at the sample I had in front of me, only one Blackberry was purchased within the last 6 months and the rest were significantly older. A testament to their build quality granted, but when I took a look at the other phones, the one’s not Blackberry, they were either brand spanking new Androids and the latest or previous iPhone. Its not hard to see where I am going from here, and as a person who has owned all three at one point or another, my ‘smartphone’ experience with iOS and Android was far superior then RIM and I believe that many others share this viewpoint.
Now we can argue/discuss this as much as we want, its hard to change perception, but speaking of perception, here’s something you may or may not have seen before, and I’ll leave you with the comic below and this; sometimes perception is reality.